October is here and the Lawrence real estate market is CREEPY! It's awfully quiet out there. Having recently risen to 7%, interest rates have reached the threshold I predicted to cool the market. While we're not yet in a Buyer's Market, things have cooled significantly since earlier this year. Long gone are the days of a dozen offers and homes going 10's of thousands over asking price. But, inventory is still low, and prices are still up. So if you think you're going to suddenly go out striking bargains, think again! However, it does represent an opportunity for savvy buyers to land the right home without having to duke it out with the competition!
Let's look at some stats through the month of September within the city limits of Lawrence:
- Homes sales have declined 17.6% YoY in the month of September vs 2021
- Total Transaction Dollar-Volume is also down YoY for September, to the tune of almost $2M
- Average YTD Home Sales Price in 2022 is $328,000
- Median YTD Home Sales Price in 2022 is $295,000, staying just under $300K for now
- Home sales are down 9.5% YTD vs Last Year; a further decrease from August
- Home Prices are up 10% YTD inside the city limits
- Median Days-on-Market is at 11 Days; an increase of 120% from September 2021
- List-to-Sale Price Ratio is 101.25%
- Total Listings are down 10.3% in 2022 vs 2021
- There are 88 Active Properties in Lawrence as of this writing, a decrease of 34 since my last update
So, what's going on? I think there's several things. I did not think we'd reach 7% interest rates this year. However, we've been steadily climbing that mountain and here we are. That climb has no doubt produced hesitation with some potential home buyers. Add to that the dismal stock market, out-of-control inflation, and general bad economic news all around, the Fall Market isn't shaping up like many predicted. This author included. There is an upcoming election. While it seems ridiculous to me that this would factor into anyone's immediate home buying and selling decisions, it is a thing. I've seen dips in market activity almost every 2-year election cycle. My only guess is that it comes down to uncertainty. There may yet be a small bump in the market after the election is over. However, I don't expect it to be big enough to buck the current trends: We will finish the year down in both units sold and dollar volume in Lawrence this year.
Stay tuned to R+K Real Estate for great new content, updates, advice, opinions and more in 2022. We plan to continue our advance of transparency, consumer advocacy, and empowering our clients with alternate business models designed to provide high levels or real estate service with drastically reduced commissions!
-Ryan Desch, Broker/Owner R+K Real Estate Solutions
